Gartner predicts sub-$500 entry-level PCs will disappear by 2028
Gartner, one of the most respected analyst firms in the tech industry, has published a forecast that's bound to be unwelcome news for budget-conscious buyers. According to the report, the entry-level PC segment priced below $500 will cease to exist by 2028, and global PC shipments will decline by 10.4% in 2026.
The main driver of the looming crisis is a sharp rise in memory component prices. Gartner estimates a 130% surge in combined DRAM and solid-state drive (SSD) prices by the end of 2026 compared to current levels. That will push PC prices up by around 17% and smartphone prices by 13% relative to 2025, shifting demand toward premium models.
Ranjit Atrwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, put it bluntly:
"This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles."
A section of the report titled "Entry-Level PCs Face Obsolescence" breaks down the mechanics. Memory costs are expected to peak at 23% of the total bill of materials in PC production, up from 16% in 2025.
In Atrwal's words:
"This sharp increase removes vendors' ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028."
For anyone following the PC gaming market, this trend isn't entirely shocking – gaming machines have always carried a significant price premium over office-grade alternatives. But the concern here is about the mainstream segment: simple, non-gaming home PCs that can currently be found well under $500.
These are everyday machines with a last-gen processor, a reasonable amount of RAM, and an SSD large enough to hold documents and family photos – exactly the kind of computer most people recommend to relatives for day-to-day use.
The closing section of the Gartner report offers vendors some advice that perhaps best illustrates the scale of what's coming.
Rather than trying to maintain sales volume by absorbing rising costs, the firm tells manufacturers:
"PC vendors should be prepared to accept a unit volume decline to sustain profitability, rather than eroding margins to chase price-sensitive buyers."
In other words, analysts are essentially telling the industry to accept a shrinking market as a given and start restructuring around that reality now.
